Rancho Santa Margarita Blog

Happy New Year.

As we end 2009 we can look back at some of the lowest rates ever in the mortgage markets. This weeks rates are up by .375% from two weeks ago and are expected to rise during the first quarter and again each quarter through the end of 2010. We are coming to the end of lowest rates ever as the 10 year treasury bond yields are now hovering at 3.85% today very 3.22% last month. Nevertheless, rates in the high 4’s and low 5’s are still incredible!!!!!! We are spoiled with low rates and our expectations of mortgage rates in the 4’s are unrealistic. When rates are this low we all receive low interest pay out for our savings accounts and CD’s. Investors want a higher yield when they are buying bonds (which fuel the mortgage markets). So, we must accept that rates in the 5’s and 6’s is normal for mortgages and will still provide a great lending platform for people to purchase homes

Senate has unanimously passed the extension of the $8,000 home buyer tax credit and the House of Representatives have approved it. The bill now awaits the President’s signature.

The bill does two things, first the extension will push the December 1st deadline through till May 1, 2010. This is an $8,000 tax credit that is available now for first-time purchasers before May 1, 2010. Added to this bill is stipulation that prospective purchasers with binding contracts in place as of April 30, 2010, will be permitted an additional 60 days to complete the transaction. This gives time for those in the process of escrow to properly close.

Second, added to this bill is a new $6,500 tax credit for repeat buyers who purchase between December 1, 2009, and May 1, 2010. For those buyers who have used their home being sold as a principle residence consecutively for 5 of the 8 years, they will be able to receive the new $6,500 tax credit.

Both tax credits are given an extra 60 days to close if they are in binding contracts as of April 30, 2010. Also, the income limits have been expanded to $125,000 on a single return and $225,000 on a joint return. This is an incredible time for home buyers to take advantage of purchasing their first or new home in Rancho Santa Margarita.

For information on buying or selling your Rancho Santa Margarita Home please feel free to call me at (949) 858-1770 or email me at margo@margomurray.com.

Your neighborhood realtor since 1988,

Margo Murray

The rates are still staying low this week. We hit our lowest rates in over 37 years on Wednesday with a slight uptick in rates this morning. The 10 year treasury bill is trading at 2.10 this morning. Investors are still in dismay as they wonder how the banks continue to lend at the largest spreads ever on mortgages.

If we look at the spreads between the 10 year treasury and 30 year mortgages, I believe you can historically expect about a 180 basis point spread. So basically, you would add 1.8% to the 10 year treasury yield. Today the 10 year treasure is 2.1, hence our rates should be at 3.9% or so. The banks are currently at a spread of 275 or so over the 10 year treasury with rates trading around 4.875.

The investors for mortgage backed securities are demanding higher returns due to the risk of mortgages and the default ratios. The banks are also working on retrieving their losses by adding their spread to the treasury to rebuild their coffers. Make no doubt about it, the banks never lose!! The public will always pay for it in the long run. But, if they did just “absorb” the losses, they would become insolvent and then our money would be worth nothing. Banks are a for profit business and have to pay dividends to their investors. Therefore, the spreads will remain high until their balance sheets rebuilt.

Having said that, the rates are still fantastic and buyers are now coming out of the woodwork. Finally.

The housing market is soft. Hard times for some can mean opportunity time for others. Could now be a good time to step into the housing market and pick up a bargain?

Generally, it is a better time to be a buyer than a seller, but this is not so in every market. In San Francisco, for example, there are still more buyers than sellers for prime upper-end properties. You’re not likely to pick up a bargain there.

Many more markets are suffering from too much inventory and too few buyers. These markets would seem to offer the best opportunities. However, this is not necessarily so. Even though the price you pay is relatively low, it could take some time before the value of your investment increases.
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One of the sings of an improving real estate market is “cherry picking.” What happens is buyers look for the best property they can find. It has the best location, best amenities, best upgrades, best landscape and most important-
best price. As these properties begin to be priced at a number that corresponds to the buyer’s specific set of parameters, homes start to sell. One by one, the really good deals begin to sell. As these homes begin to sell, other buyers, who waited too long, get nervous and decide they had better purchase also. Once all the “cherries” are gone, we then have the “dogs” that no one wants. They are priced the same as the “cherries,” but are inferior in some way.  As these properties begin to sell, the new market value for the neighborhood is set. This is the new fair market value which guides both buyers and appraisers. After all the “dogs” are sold, sellers who have been on the market for months and years have a decision to make. They must either drop their price to fair market value or take their home off the market. As this process begins, inventory will drop and won’t be replaced very quickly. Many sellers will not want to sell their homes for the lower fair market value. When those properties, owned by sellers who are motivated and are willing to take fair arket value, sell, the real estate market will begin to stabilize. Unless the government does something stupid, we will slowly get back to a normal market where prices are negotiated over 10,000 to 20,000 dollars within the listing price.

There will always be some properties in neighborhoods that will sell for more or less. This stabilization has happened after each of the other cycles in the 1970’s, 1980’s and 1990’s. Always remember the golden rule in real estate, “long term.” No one has ever been hurt by owning their own home for 20 years. That also means you don’t use your home’s equity as a savings account. If you kept the same loan on the property that you had when you purchased it 20 years ago, you’d have equity in your home and te value would be higher. Period.

1 Interest rates on long-term, fixed, and adjustable mortgages are at historically low levels. The rate on a 30-year, fixed mortgage is hovering just below 6 percent, while, by comparison, interest rates were hitting 8 percent and higher during the last market downturn in the late 1990s, and were between 10 and 12 percent at the height of the last housing boom in the 1980s. Lower interest rates make it easier to qualify for a loan, and your monthly payments are more affordable. 

2 No one can put a price on the intrinsic value of homeownership. Home prices also reflect financial worth and, the good news is, across California the median sales price for a single-family home has been consistently rising for several decades. In short, housing remains a solid, long-term financial investment. While the pace of home appreciation has slowed over the last year, historical data suggest home prices will continue to appreciate over time. The projected median home price for a single-family home in California in 2008, for example, is $553,000.
By comparison, the median price in 2000 was $241,350; $193,770 in 1990, and $99,550 in 1980. (source: C.A.R.)

3 The length of time a home remains on the market before it is sold has increased from roughly two weeks in 2004 to between eight and nine weeks in 2007. According to the unsold inventory index provided by the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS®, it would take 16.3 months to sell all the homes on the market at the current sales pace, compared with 6.4 months in 2006. With more homes on the market for longer periods of time, you have more choices when it comes to selecting a home today. 

4 The multiple-offer frenzy that dominated the latest housing boom has subsided, and there is less pressure on today’s home buyers to outbid one another. REALTORS® in California reported that in 2007 only 28 percent
of homes sold had multiple offers, compared with 57 percent in 2004. (source: C.A.R.) 

5 The credit industry crisis that has made securing a home loan difficult for many has led to heightened scrutiny of mortgage lenders. As a result, state and federal agencies have created protections for home buyers that were not in place a year ago. The U.S. Federal Reserve, for example, has proposed a plan to require lenders to confirm a borrower’s ability to afford a mortgage before making a loan and establishing guidelines for explaining sub-prime loan terms in order to better educate buyers. Many new public education and awareness campaigns, such as Freddie Mac’s “Don’t Borrow Trouble®” campaign, have been developed to help you achieve the dream of homeownership without the financial risks that led so many borrowers into trouble in recent years. Buying a home in today’s market may be challenging, particularly for those with credit problems or little saved to put toward a down payment. But there are many factors impacting the current housing market that make buying a home today a viable option.