Rancho Santa Margarita Blog

Happy New Year.

As we end 2009 we can look back at some of the lowest rates ever in the mortgage markets. This weeks rates are up by .375% from two weeks ago and are expected to rise during the first quarter and again each quarter through the end of 2010. We are coming to the end of lowest rates ever as the 10 year treasury bond yields are now hovering at 3.85% today very 3.22% last month. Nevertheless, rates in the high 4’s and low 5’s are still incredible!!!!!! We are spoiled with low rates and our expectations of mortgage rates in the 4’s are unrealistic. When rates are this low we all receive low interest pay out for our savings accounts and CD’s. Investors want a higher yield when they are buying bonds (which fuel the mortgage markets). So, we must accept that rates in the 5’s and 6’s is normal for mortgages and will still provide a great lending platform for people to purchase homes

LOST IN TRANSPARENCY 

Big changes are coming to the mortgage industry as of January 1^st, 2010; most at the cost of the borrower.  

Attempting to add “transparency” and increased disclosure to the borrower in a mortgage transaction, HUD has officially implemented the new 2010 Good Faith Estimate. Please hold the applause. And what goodies will the borrower get with the new 2010 Good Faith Estimate: 

1. A new and improved 3 page Good Faith Estimate adding two more documents to read. The old 1 page document that clearly listed fees, rate, payment, and cash to close was just too confusing for those that didn’t complete grade school.
2. Have your pencils ready. The new Good Faith Estimate has a scratch pad were you can compare rates and fees from different lenders; or just doodle. Simply putting different Good Faith Estimates from different lenders side by side was too complicated.
3. Your monthly mortgage payment is in bold print. The payment will include principle, interest, and any mortgage insurance. However, the payment will no longer disclose property taxes, homeowners insurance, or HOA dues. TOO much information. The disclosed monthly payments in bold will now leave the borrowers feeling warm and fuzzy because it appears so low. Surprise; it is.
4. And finally, HUD didn’t want to burden the borrower with knowing how much money they would need at closing. Keep your pencils out; you will have to do the math yourselves.  

The new HUD approved 2010 Good Faith Estimate will be disclosed by a mortgage company near you starting January 1^st, 2010. Also, changes in yield spread premiums are likely to be implemented come January 1^st, 2010 which will ultimately lead to higher fees to the borrower.

Senate has unanimously passed the extension of the $8,000 home buyer tax credit and the House of Representatives have approved it. The bill now awaits the President’s signature.

The bill does two things, first the extension will push the December 1st deadline through till May 1, 2010. This is an $8,000 tax credit that is available now for first-time purchasers before May 1, 2010. Added to this bill is stipulation that prospective purchasers with binding contracts in place as of April 30, 2010, will be permitted an additional 60 days to complete the transaction. This gives time for those in the process of escrow to properly close.

Second, added to this bill is a new $6,500 tax credit for repeat buyers who purchase between December 1, 2009, and May 1, 2010. For those buyers who have used their home being sold as a principle residence consecutively for 5 of the 8 years, they will be able to receive the new $6,500 tax credit.

Both tax credits are given an extra 60 days to close if they are in binding contracts as of April 30, 2010. Also, the income limits have been expanded to $125,000 on a single return and $225,000 on a joint return. This is an incredible time for home buyers to take advantage of purchasing their first or new home in Rancho Santa Margarita.

For information on buying or selling your Rancho Santa Margarita Home please feel free to call me at (949) 858-1770 or email me at margo@margomurray.com.

Your neighborhood realtor since 1988,

Margo Murray

Prices of property are at a historic low. The time to purchase a house is now, because we may not see such low prices again for some time and because sellers are motivated.

Investors may lose confidence in U.S. dollars. Erosion of confidence will be the main driver for devaluation of the U.S. currency. The time to purchase a house is now,  while the dollar is still strong against major foreign currencies.

It is a fact that the government will face an astronomical deficit and will try to stimulate the economy. Current interest rates are extreamly low. Although, soon we will all compete for chip money, including the federal and local government. The supply and demand will push interest rates up. The time to purchase a house is now,  when the interest rates are low.

Massive borrowing are essential ingredients for high inflation. High inflation will devalue your savings. During inflationary periods, owning property is considered a wise way to park money.  The time to purchase a house is now, before inflationary pressure checks in. 
                                          Click the link below to find             

                Best deals in Rancho Santa Margarita or Orange County

The rates are still staying low this week. We hit our lowest rates in over 37 years on Wednesday with a slight uptick in rates this morning. The 10 year treasury bill is trading at 2.10 this morning. Investors are still in dismay as they wonder how the banks continue to lend at the largest spreads ever on mortgages.

If we look at the spreads between the 10 year treasury and 30 year mortgages, I believe you can historically expect about a 180 basis point spread. So basically, you would add 1.8% to the 10 year treasury yield. Today the 10 year treasure is 2.1, hence our rates should be at 3.9% or so. The banks are currently at a spread of 275 or so over the 10 year treasury with rates trading around 4.875.

The investors for mortgage backed securities are demanding higher returns due to the risk of mortgages and the default ratios. The banks are also working on retrieving their losses by adding their spread to the treasury to rebuild their coffers. Make no doubt about it, the banks never lose!! The public will always pay for it in the long run. But, if they did just “absorb” the losses, they would become insolvent and then our money would be worth nothing. Banks are a for profit business and have to pay dividends to their investors. Therefore, the spreads will remain high until their balance sheets rebuilt.

Having said that, the rates are still fantastic and buyers are now coming out of the woodwork. Finally.

                                        Source for statistics: California Association of Realtors

Gary Watts has long been recognized as a forecasting expert by the real estate industry. His long-term analysis has also drawn the attention of the media due to his consistent accuracy. His Economic Outlook has been spotlighted in regional newspapers, including the Orange County Register and the Los Angeles Times. He has been seen on the PBS TV program Real Orange, and he has been a featured advisor on real estate forecasting roundtables. He holds a degree in economics with advanced studies in psychology from California State University at Sacramento. 

The housing market below $250,000 has most likely reached the bottom
Prices now in the $350,000 range are close to the bottom.
The rest of the housing market still suffers a restructuring of prices. 
Expect foreclosures and short sales to dominate the market through 2010.
Listing inventory should rise due to the large number of foreclosures set to enter the market.
The credit conditions should greatly improve, bringing more buyers into the market place.
Demand for properties will continue to be higher than the past three years.

         Are you “On The Fence” About Buying a Home?

• It helps transform the mortgaged-back securities.
  This keeps access to capital for borrowers high and
  interest rates low.

• Conforming/jumbo conforming rates should drop in
  the coming weeks by as much as a percentage point.

• It improves confidence in the stock market allowing
  investors to once again realize profits, which they in
  turn can re-invest in mortgages.

• Credit will flow again bringing new, qualified buyers
  into the market to take advantage of the investment
  opportunities currently available.

• Modified mortgages will allow some homeowners to
  restructure their mortgages and avoid foreclosure.

If you’re on the fence, now is an excellent opportunity to realize
dramatic savings on a home purchase before the market shifts,
and we begin the next ‘UP’ stage of the cycle.

Presidential elections always have a noticeable impact on the economy. Historically speaking, presidential elections usually reverse prevailing trends, which is good news in this economy. Since the media is covering a lot of the “drama” and not much on actually what the policies of each candidate are. I’ve desided to do a bit more investigation myself. For your convenience click below to be directed to the economic policy section of each candidate’s website.
Economic Policies for: Barack Obama

Economic Policies for: John McCain