Rancho Santa Margarita Blog

The rates are still staying low this week. We hit our lowest rates in over 37 years on Wednesday with a slight uptick in rates this morning. The 10 year treasury bill is trading at 2.10 this morning. Investors are still in dismay as they wonder how the banks continue to lend at the largest spreads ever on mortgages.

If we look at the spreads between the 10 year treasury and 30 year mortgages, I believe you can historically expect about a 180 basis point spread. So basically, you would add 1.8% to the 10 year treasury yield. Today the 10 year treasure is 2.1, hence our rates should be at 3.9% or so. The banks are currently at a spread of 275 or so over the 10 year treasury with rates trading around 4.875.

The investors for mortgage backed securities are demanding higher returns due to the risk of mortgages and the default ratios. The banks are also working on retrieving their losses by adding their spread to the treasury to rebuild their coffers. Make no doubt about it, the banks never lose!! The public will always pay for it in the long run. But, if they did just “absorb” the losses, they would become insolvent and then our money would be worth nothing. Banks are a for profit business and have to pay dividends to their investors. Therefore, the spreads will remain high until their balance sheets rebuilt.

Having said that, the rates are still fantastic and buyers are now coming out of the woodwork. Finally.